UPDATED FEBRUARY 28: WINNING PICKS IN RED. WE GOT 20 OF 24 RIGHT.
Three of the four acting spots are pretty much locks, and The King’s Speech has stolen all of the best-picture momentum The Social Network had slowly built up throughout the awards season, but a number of the 24 categories still seem up in the air. MAGNET editor (and longtime amateur Oscar predictor) Eric T. Miller tells you who will win in each category. (He was 18 for 24 last year.)
The second year is the charm for having 10 best-picture nominees, as finally all are deserving, unlike The Blind Side last year. (But really, where is The Town?) I will be shocked if The King’s Speech doesn’t win the big prize, but I think the bigger question is whether it can run the table. I don’t think it will, but if you see it start to win categories such as art direction, costume design, score or sound editing, it could pull off upsets in supporting actor, director, cinematography and, less likely, supporting actress and film editing.
Colin Firth is a lock for best actor, as much for a great performance as he is because it’s his “year,” just like it was Jeff Bridges’ “year” last year. This is far from a new phenomenon, rewarding a deserving actor or actress who has never won an Oscar with a sort-of lifetime-achievement nod. So since Bridges and Javier Bardem already have their Oscars and James Franco and Jesse Eisenberg, given their relative youth, will have plenty of chances for future awards, the academy has no choice but vote for Firth.
As for the other acting categories, there is a chance that Annette Bening could top Natalie Portman and that Geoffrey Rush could beat Christian Bale (see the The King’s sweep theory above), but it’s not very likely. The only really interesting category to watch is supporting actress. Melissa Leo has been the frontrunner throughout the awards season, but a couple of different scenarios might play out. She and Fighter co-star Amy Adams could split the vote, leaving it open for Hailee Steinfeld or Helena Bonham Carter. I think that will happen, with Steinfeld coming out on top. But if the academy thinks Steinfeld’s performance should have been placed in the best-actress category (which it should have, since she has more screen time than anyone else in True Grit) or that the 14-year-old has a long career ahead of her to win an Oscar, Bonham Carter could win. (Sorry, Jacki Weaver. You are as deserving as any for your terrific performance in the stellar Animal Kingdom, but you have about as much chance to win as I do.)
David Fincher should be a lock for best director, unless there’s a King’s sweep, in which case Tom Hooper would win. But I think The Social Network triumphs over The King’s Speech here as well as film editing and score. Both films will lose out to True Grit in cinematography because that movie’s Roger Deakins is way overdue (nine Oscar noms, no wins) and also because Deakins is about the best cinematographer who ever lived (check out his filmography if you aren’t familiar with him).
But who cares what I think? Here’s what I know:
Best Picture: The King’s Speech
Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network
Best Actor: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Best Original Screenplay: David Seidler, The King’s Speech
Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Best Cinematography: Roger Deakins, True Grit
Best Animated Film: Toy Story 3
Best Foreign Language Film: In A Better World (Denmark)
Best Documentary: Inside Job
Best Film Editing: Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall, The Social Network
Best Score: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network
Best Song: Randy Newman, “We Belong Together,” Toy Story 3
Best Art Direction: Robert Stromberg and Karen O’Hara, Alice In Wonderland
Best Sound Editing: Richard King, Inception
Best Sound Mixing: Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed Novick, Inception
Best Costume Design: Colleen Atwood, Alice In Wonderland
Best Makeup: Rick Baker and Dave Elsey, The Wolfman
Best Visual Effects: Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley and Peter Bebb, Inception
Best Documentary Short: Strangers No More
Best Animated Short: The Gruffalo
Best Live Action Short: God Of Love
